Zogby??

After a six point lead today it is back to a four point race for Wednesday?

Not sure who to believe in this race. This is getting ridiculous.



Display:


Diary? (none / 0)

16 words?


Now Loose on the Moose
by brit on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 07:41:40 PM EST

Re: Diary? (2.00 / 1)

The word count doubled in a few minutes. This is good news.


Now Loose on the Moose
by brit on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:04:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby?? (none / 0)

Obama 48.2%, McCain 44.4%... Not Sure 7.4%...

McCain is almost just 3 points behind.....Scary.

I think the stock market surge yesterday has something to do with this.


by vermillion on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 07:44:08 PM EST

Or Zogby's Wacky Party Weighting (2.00 / 1)

Much more likely.


by Davidsfr on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 11:36:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

NYT: 53 - 39 (none / 0)

Sweet:

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/oct08b -politics.pdf


"As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where-where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border."
by fugazi on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 07:46:45 PM EST

Brother, you need to stay away from the polls (2.00 / 2)

I really don't think you are a concern troll, but you are kind of a Panic Poster:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/10/7/2453 3/1764

Any movement in the polls SEEMS to send you over the edge.

Either less caffeine or go see some live Jazz is my advice.

Something with a good stand up accoustic bass and a real piano?

See if they will play some old Duke Ellington for you, or maybe even some Mose Allison?

Calms the soul and the nerves.


On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....
by WashStateBlue on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 07:46:45 PM EST

Re: Brother, you need to stay away from the polls (none / 0)

I have a friend at work who craps himself if Obama loses a single point in any tracking poll.  Also, if Obama is up in tracking polls but down even one point in a swing state I get to listen to how the sky is falling and we are all doomed.  

I love our side but sometimes we act more like ewoks.


by Xris on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 07:54:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Except for a brief blip from So Shiny Palin (none / 0)

Obama has been steady in the polls.

Clinton won by 8.5 and it was a frickin electoral landslide!

Obama has ONE hurdle left, tomorrow night, and you would be CRAZY to bet against him.

He closes, he's the 4th quarter point guard; I used to watch Gary Payton here with the Sonics, and there was ALWAYS a moment in the 4th quarter where he knew when to drop the hammer.

Barack drops it tomorrow night, and he closes the deal in his one hour speech to the nation after that.


On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....
by WashStateBlue on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 07:59:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Except for a brief blip from So Shiny Palin (2.00 / 1)

I think even if he lost tommorrow night, as long as he didn't call McCain a Nazi, punch him in the face, whip it out and then piss all over McCain, then he will be fine.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 12:33:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Except for a brief blip from So Shiny Palin (none / 0)

If he did that I think Obama's poll numbers would sky rocket lol

just picturing McCain all battered and bruised on the floor covered in piss lol not even Hannity would vote for McCain after that lol  


President-elect Barack Obama spent the day thanking the people who helped him win the election. Obama's first phone call was to Sarah Palin.
by wellinformed on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 09:00:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Brother, you need to stay away from the polls (none / 0)

Right. Let's not crap ourselves.


"As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where-where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border."
by fugazi on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:01:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Brother, you need to stay away from the polls (2.00 / 1)

that's probably a good rule to follow in general.  At all costs avoid crapping yourself:P


by Xris on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:04:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Jazz suggestion: (2.00 / 1)

If you're into a musician's musician, female/vocalist/pianist, try some Blossom Dearie.  Heck, just about any of the Verve artists will do, but, Blossom should be on the top of your list.

Maybe "Scherezade", that always works to calm me down after listening to too much Offspring.


I might be crazy... but are you seeing what I'm seeing?
by mydailydrunk on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:20:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh yeah, BTW, Zogby is a joke (2.00 / 1)

Just go over to 538, stare at all that calming blue and chill.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/


I might be crazy... but are you seeing what I'm seeing?
by mydailydrunk on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:23:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh yeah, BTW, Zogby is a joke (none / 0)

Blue pacman is kicking red pacman's ass.


I'm voting for Saxby Chambliss!
by Jess81 on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:55:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Brother, you need to stay away from the polls (none / 0)

For REALz. McCain will not overtake Obama without a Serious Event, and Zogby has consistently been the lowballer for Obama among the polls.

Remember. The race is always going to get closer. But the longer we see McCain floundering in the low 40s, the more likely it is that those 5-10% of undecided voters that just won't support Obama no matter what will mostly just stay home.

Not to mention that there are likely a lot of households where the wife of the household will be voting for Obama but the husband would freak the hell out if he knew. In such cases, there really MIGHT be a reverse Bradley effect.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:37:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby?? (2.00 / 1)

Zogby's alternated from 4 to 6 to 4 to 6 to 4 since it came out on Friday.

No big deal....  

Battleground generally has the best reputation, and I think we were at 13 today?


Conservatism is nothing but a bad laissez-fairey tale
by neko608 on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 07:48:53 PM EST

Re: Zogby?? (none / 0)

Why does Battleground have the best reputation? It's made absurd swings over the past few weeks when the race has been pretty stable.

No one poll is going to give a better picture than the overall average.


Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
by fwiffo3 on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 07:57:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Battleground has a track record (none / 0)

that is very good, Zogby's is too, but Battleground is more consistent with other polls than Zogby, and his party weighting is much lower dem than anyone else's.


by Davidsfr on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 11:37:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby?? (2.00 / 1)

Brother, you need to stay away from the polls (none / 0)

I really don't think you are a concern troll, but you are kind of a Panic Poster:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/10/7/2453 3/1764

"Any movement in the polls SEEMS to send you over the edge.

Either less caffeine or go see some live Jazz is my advice.

Something with a good stand up accoustic bass and a real piano?

See if they will play some old Duke Ellington for you, or maybe even some Mose Allison?

Calms the soul and the nerves."

No, I am not a troll.

I will not feel comfortable until Obama gives his inauguration speech on 1/20/09.

What is wrong with sharing some concern in light of what the GOP has done to us in past elections?

I think if we get all cocky about this race it will come back to bite us in the ass.


by vermillion on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 07:53:54 PM EST

The last poll (none / 0)

The last poll you discussed was the older CBS poll showing only a 3 point Obama lead. How do you feel about the new CBS poll showing a 14 point Obama lead?


by Cleveland John on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:02:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby?? (none / 0)

Zogby went from 2% to 4% to 6% then again to 4%, then 6% and now to again to 4%.  Given all that, it makes no sense to craft this diary.  Are you going to post at all when Zogby moves back up to 6%, then be "scared" again when Zogby shows 4% again?   Besides, are you familiar with MoE and what it actually means?    


by devilrays on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:34:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby?? (none / 0)

the problem is that you wrote a diary that's not a diary. it's a comment. so next time put it in the open thread. blogging 101.


by Todd Beeton on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 12:13:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby?? (2.00 / 1)

Zogby's done all of his polling for today, at a time when people out West haven't even gotten off of work.  Also, he gives Dems only a 2-point advantage.  Think about his reliability in that context.


by rfahey22 on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 07:59:02 PM EST

Good point (none / 0)

How do they release a poll now when it's just after 5pm in the West.

Zogby did this in the primary too. They had wild swings because they polled when nobody was home.


by elrod on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:11:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good point (none / 0)

Exactly. They finish their phone calls at 6PM EST, quickly compile their results, and they get "leaked" to Drudge for free advertising.


by Cleveland John on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:20:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good point (none / 0)

Actually, I might have to take that one back a little bit.  As someone mentioned on Open Left, it's possible that they sample in 24-hr. cycles that begin at, say 6:00 p.m., which would allow them to complete a full day at about this time.  Zogby's still a shitty poll, though.


by rfahey22 on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:21:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good point (none / 0)

Ah. Still, that's weird. And they have a D+2 margin? Anything less than D+6 doesn't pass the smell test.

Rasmussen actually asks people what party they belong to and they develop a large-sample party ID sample. They have Dems up 6.3 this week.


by elrod on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:04:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good point (none / 0)

They need an erratic poll. A big McCain lead is dull as hell. Gallup and Rasmussen are still much higher samples.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:38:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not sure who to believe in this race (2.00 / 1)

Try Obama.

The rest of us are already there.


On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....
by WashStateBlue on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:01:34 PM EST

Re: Zogby?? (none / 0)

It takes just a breeze to turn a 4 point lead into a 6 point lead and back again. It's called "noise".


by RandyMI on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:24:00 PM EST

Re: Zogby?? (none / 0)

Zogby is a fraud who is hedging his bets.


by tarheel74 on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:56:40 PM EST

Re: Zogby?? (none / 0)

At this point overconfidence is probably a bigger enemy than McCain.  The election is in three weeks.  Why get into a pissing match over polls?


by IncognitoErgoSum on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 12:04:34 AM EST

Re: Zogby?? (none / 0)

Follow the leader...stay cool.......


by obama4presidente on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 12:27:45 AM EST

Re: Zogby?? (none / 0)

"The last poll you discussed was the older CBS poll showing only a 3 point Obama lead. How do you feel about the new CBS poll showing a 14 point Obama lead?"

How do I feel??? I wish these polls would stay consistent. Either Obama is way ahead, barely ahead, or a bit behind.

3-14 points within a week is crazy. However, I sure hope CBS, ABC, and Newsweek are the polls that are most accurate.

Again, I do not want to be over confident. Did we not make that mistake in 2000 and 2004?


by vermillion on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 12:38:07 AM EST

Re: Zogby?? (none / 0)

"How do I feel??? I wish these polls would stay consistent. Either Obama is way ahead, barely ahead, or a bit behind.

3-14 points within a week is crazy. However, I sure hope CBS, ABC, and Newsweek are the polls that are most accurate."

 You get all huffy about a ONE PERCENT noise movement within the margin of error in a DAILY TRACKING POLL?   That is ridiculous.  

As for the spread:

IBD predicts an exact evenly split electorate with the same number of Republicans and Democrats showing up at the polls.  So, they show a 3% race.  

Zogby shows a 6% race (it is really that if you keep your huffing out of simple daily noise) and has the Democrats with a 2% turnout advantage.

Others have higher turnout models showing Democrats more excited than Republicans, so they show the race more lopsided for us.  

Seems consistent with what we are seeing, and it all depends on which turnout theory you want to believe.  I think it is a safe bet that the "even" theory in this anti-GOP does not hold water, is a joke, so IBD is not going to be accurate until they change their weighting to reflect a more realistic party ID split.  Zogby is probably a bit low with their +2% prediction.  In this special year in which the GOP is going to be repudiated in this massive fashion across the board a more realistic party ID weighting would probably be about 4% to 6% pro-Democrats.  So, for my money I think the race is at about between 6% to 8% in favor of Obama at this point. If you believe the turnout will be closer to 2004 splits, then you just go with the IBD or Zogby type polls.   Nothing crazy about the poll spreads in general, it just depends how you believe turnout will be to assess which range makes the most sense for you to believe in.


by devilrays on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 12:59:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby?? (none / 0)

Considering that the polls which actually measure party ID instead of assigning it give us a substantial advantage, I'm not worried in the slightest.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 04:06:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby?? (none / 0)

Not sure who to believe in this race.

Definitely not Zogby!


by Drummond on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 02:56:40 AM EST


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